Bailey Ober
RHP
MIN
11
HRs Allowed
12.2%
HR Rate (Pool)
12.8%
Overall HR/FB
4.01
FIP
4.54
xFIP
-0.53
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.1
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
52th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
74.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.01
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
51th pctile
4.54
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.53
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
24th pctile
12.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
90
Pool Matchups
11
HRs Allowed (Pool)
3
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
12.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 27.8% | 2.5 | 100.4mph | 106.4mph | 27.4° | 403ft | Up +15.6pp |
| Last 15 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 25.9% | 2.33 | 99.3mph | 107.6mph | 26.6° | 402ft | Up +13.7pp |
| Last 30 | 45 | 5 | 9 | 20.0% | 1.8 | 98.7mph | 107.4mph | 28.0° | 405ft | Up +7.8pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.6
Avg Max EV
115.5
Max EV Allowed
60
Hard-Hit Proxy · 74.1%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
107.5
Avg HR EV
28.5°
Avg HR Launch
403
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Spencer Horwitz | 107.2mph | 107.2mph | 29° | 408ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-30 | Bryan Reynolds | 106.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Oneil Cruz | 106.1mph | 106.1mph | 30° | 420ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-30 | Brandon Lowe | 105.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Jake Mangum | 104.5mph | 104.5mph | 23° | 410ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-30 | Nick Gonzales | 102.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Jared Triolo | 101.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Konnor Griffin | 100.7mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Oneil Cruz | #73 | 56 | PNC Park | 106.1mph | 30.0° | 420ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Spencer Horwitz | #95 | 53 | PNC Park | 107.2mph | 29.0° | 408ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Jake Mangum | #266 | 13 | PNC Park | 104.5mph | 23.0° | 410ft |
| 2026-05-24 | Willson Contreras | #90 | 49 | Fenway Park | 105.6mph | 31.0° | 382.0ft |
| 2026-05-24 | Masataka Yoshida | #237 | 28 | Fenway Park | 108.6mph | 24.0° | 393.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Garrett Mitchell | #98 | 51 | Target Field | 115.5mph | 20.0° | 405.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Christian Yelich | #182 | 36 | Target Field | 105.7mph | 29.0° | 398.0ft |
| 2026-05-06 | Brady House | #161 | 27 | Nationals Park | 108.8mph | 35.0° | 425.0ft |
| 2026-05-06 | CJ Abrams | #182 | 24 | Nationals Park | 104.3mph | 31.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-04-30 | Daulton Varsho | #147 | 17 | Target Field | 107.4mph | 34.0° | 397.0ft |
| 2026-03-29 | Tyler O'Neill | #32 | 54 | Camden Yards | 109.0mph | 27.0° | 391.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 406 | 36.5% | +1.2 | 80.3 | 13.8° | 4 |
| Fastball | 347 | 31.2% | +1.2 | 85.3 | 34.3° | 7 |
| Slider | 176 | 15.8% | -0.8 | 85.1 | 24.7° | 0 |
| Sweeper | 114 | 10.2% | -4.0 | 77.9 | 16.2° | 0 |
| Sinker | 45 | 4.0% | +2.5 | 80.8 | 16.1° | 2 |
| Curveball | 25 | 2.2% | +1.9 | 84.0 | 22.9° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
74.1%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Jake Mangum | #266 | 13 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Nick Gonzales | #260 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Jared Triolo | #259 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Konnor Griffin | #187 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Endy Rodríguez | #172 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Bryan Reynolds | #128 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Spencer Horwitz | #95 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Oneil Cruz | #73 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Brandon Lowe | #24 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Nick Sogard | #272 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Caleb Durbin | #247 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Carlos Narváez | #246 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Masataka Yoshida | #237 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-24 | Marcelo Mayer | #229 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #156 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Wilyer Abreu | #148 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Jarren Duran | #131 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Willson Contreras | #90 | 49 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | David Hamilton | #263 | 11 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Joey Ortiz | #247 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Sal Frelick | #238 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Christian Yelich | #182 | 36 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | William Contreras | #167 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Garrett Mitchell | #98 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Brice Turang | #84 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Jake Bauers | #67 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Jackson Chourio | #56 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Heriberto Hernández | #229 | 17 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Graham Pauley | #205 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Xavier Edwards | #191 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Owen Caissie | #170 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Connor Norby | #160 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Agustín Ramírez | #159 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Jakob Marsee | #135 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Otto Lopez | #130 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Liam Hicks | #21 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Nasim Nuñez | #241 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Jacob Young | #225 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Daylen Lile | #203 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Jorbit Vivas | #183 | 24 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-06 | CJ Abrams | #182 | 24 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-06 | Luis García Jr. | #175 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Brady House | #161 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-06 | Curtis Mead | #138 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | James Wood | #74 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Davis Schneider | #176 | 9 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Ernie Clement | #152 | 16 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Daulton Varsho | #147 | 17 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-30 | Nathan Lukes | #138 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Andrés Giménez | #137 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #136 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | George Springer | #81 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Kazuma Okamoto | #77 | 31 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Jesús Sánchez | #46 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Taylor Walls | #252 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Chandler Simpson | #248 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Ben Williamson | #239 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Nick Fortes | #223 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Cedric Mullins | #193 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Yandy Díaz | #189 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Jonny DeLuca | #147 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Jonathan Aranda | #85 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Junior Caminero | #55 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Rece Hinds | #270 | · | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | TJ Friedl | #268 | 1 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Matt McLain | #260 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | #241 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Eugenio Suárez | #233 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Tyler Stephenson | #165 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Spencer Steer | #139 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Elly De La Cruz | #105 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Sal Stewart | #81 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Gleyber Torres | #183 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Javier Baez | #162 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Colt Keith | #148 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Zach McKinstry | #95 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Wenceel Perez | #85 | 40 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Dillon Dingler | #72 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Spencer Torkelson | #65 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Riley Greene | #38 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Kerry Carpenter | #8 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Ryan Mountcastle | #86 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Dylan Beavers | #58 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jeremiah Jackson | #42 | 45 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Coby Mayo | #41 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Gunnar Henderson | #39 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Samuel Basallo | #37 | 46 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Tyler O'Neill | #32 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-03-29 | Taylor Ward | #12 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Pete Alonso | #5 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |